.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Discount and Hawkins

Discount and Hawkins Case Case Synopsis The subject matter of the case is presented as a negotiation between a real estate developer, Hawkins, and a possible anchor tenant, Discount Marketplace. Both parties are represented by professional negotiators: Myra Hart is representing the Hawkins Company and Genia is representing the Discount Marketplace. The Hawkins Company is a real estate developer, who is operating across UK, offering different types of services, such as: Mortgages, Energy Performance Certificates, Sales and Lettings. They are interested in having Discount Marketplace as a tenant in a proposed shopping center.The Discount Marketplace is an innovative national retailer with the main activity focused on operating with hard goods, which involves selling small housewares. Their interest is to sign a lease with the new mall. Several issues were debated during the negotiation, but the most important for both parties were the use of property and the operating covenant. Parties bounced back and forth between these two issues during the negotiation. The mall developer insisted on having the contract signed for 15 years, while having a soft constrain of 10 years.Since both parties expected retailer to operate for 25 years, it shouldn’t have been a problem for the retailer to sign the contract for 10 years. Although the retailer considered it would be better for them, regarding their type of activity, to sign for a shorter period of 5 years. They would also have a second option of making business with other developers, who wouldn't require a contract signed for such a long period. Finally they reached an agreement on having the contract signed for a period of 7 years. In the end they made a deal, agreeing on main issues.They settled on discussing some options left in the future. This involved the qualitative language regarding possible tenants and the period of time in which the notice would be made before leaving. Rough Issue Map 1. The Use of Proper ty The negotiation started with discussion of the issue regarding the use of property. The Developer wished that the Retailer would deal only with soft goods, and asked them to use same product mix for all locations around the country. The proposal was declined because the Retailer felt it was limiting to deal with only soft goods.Retailer wanted to be free in selecting the type of goods and services. Their argument was that they needed to be more flexible regarding their product mix in order to achieve innovation and to follow their advertising strategy. Also the Retailer didn’t agree to use the same product mix across country because their main activity was based around a strategy of adapting the product mix. In order to get to an agreement the Developer suggested limiting the activity to some percentage of the operation area. They offered a limit of 10 – 15% for trial.The Retailer accepted the offer and issue was solved. 2. Operating Covenant Developer’s conc ern about the contract duration was that the Discount Marketplace would operate for only as long as the business would be viable. Their aspiration level was to sign the contract for a period of minimum 15 years and their soft constrain was to sign the contract for a minimum of 10 years. Developer needed to be sure that the retailer would perform the best they can and they needed to be safe in case the Marketplace wanted to make sudden changes after signing the contract, like changing the location too soon.The Retailer’s aspiration level was to have the contract signed for a period of maximum 5 years and their hard constrain was 7 years. Signing the contract for 15 years would be difficult to finance. Also the developer held an advantage of receiving a long income stream. In Retailer’s case, the flexibility of being able to move, when required, was crucial. They discussed the problem and the Developer was willing to accept 7 years only if the Retailer accepted a rent st ep-up clause. This clause would be valid in case Retailer decided to leave and to find another tenant in their place.The retailer declined the offer by arguing that they already agreed on the rent terms. In the end, the issue was solved and the Developer accepted to sign the contract for 7 years. 3. Terms of leaving The Developer made two offers to the Retailer, in case they would decide to leave. First proposal was that the Retailer would have to find a sub-let tenant. The second proposal was to find a sub-let tenant together; The Developer preferred to be the one to choose, since they were doing real estate business and were better qualified and gained more experience in this area.The Retailer representative accepted the second offer. During the negotiation of other terms Retailer repacked the issue with other demands: they wanted to be able to assign another tenant without waiting for the Developer approval. But the proposal was rejected. Since parties couldn’t reach an ag reement, retailer proposed to use a qualitative language in respect to possible future tenants. If the proposed tenant fitted the parameters then the developer approval wouldn’t be needed and if the tenant fell outside the parameters, it would be required.Issue was not solved because the new proposal made no sense to the developer and they needed an advice from a lawyer in order to write the qualitative language. 4. Notice: The Developer required at least 18 months notice from retailer before they would decide to leave. The retailer agreed at the beginning of negotiation, but then they rejected the offer and suggested a period of 12 months instead. Developer ignored the proposal and this issue remained unsolved. 5. Sub-letting conditions The Developer was concerned by the fact, that the Retailer could sub-let the place at a very high rent.In this case they wanted to take the full rent from sub-letting. A second option for Retailer was to remain on the lease and to split the s urplus in rent with the Developer. The Retailer agreed to split the rent surplus. 6. Use of property regarding sub-letting Both parties came to an agreement, that the Retailer wouldn't sub-let to offices, call centers, educational training, furniture retailers, video arcades and movie theaters. 7. Rent Terms: The Retailer would benefit from a low rate of rent because if they would leave the place next day after signing the contract the developer would get the rent for 25 years.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Major trends in corrections Essay

Functions of photography in police investigation: It can be to heal- using of photography, the investigator solved the crime by examining the photograph and identify who is the perpetrator. It can be to inform It can be to record- to record the crime scene itself and to record the evidence. It can be to influence It can be to entertain It can be to transform It can be to preserve- to preserve all the evidence that captured in the crime scene. Even though the crime scene is cleaned there are the photographs to be examined. It can be to decorate It can be to use- used in examining crime scene. And it is used as evidence. It can be to play 2010: The year of the correctional officerIn a year of tightened budges, officer furloughs, and increased media attention, officers stood strong.| By Barry EvertEvery year I am asked to write about the year prior. Quite honestly, I rarely agree to this because it usually has little training value. This year, though, I have made the exception. 2010 was a lot of things to a lot of people. Overall, probably, it was a rough year for most reading this. 2010 was not the year of the dragon, or the year of the dog; it was the year of the Correctional Officer.Budget cuts was the song sung from high at almost every capitol building in the country. Politicians proudly paraded themselves as the saviors of the economy as they slashed public safety budgets to new lows. At the same time new spending programs were put into place for everything from the protection of tree frogs to building bridges to nowhere. At the bottom of this pile was corrections. Many police agencies were able to scream loudly enough to get enough funding to keep their departments running, albeit barely. When Corrections agencies made the same call, we were largely ignored. Many states implemented a â€Å"furlough† program, or something similar, that cut the salaries of the lowest paid employees. On top of this, training was cut to an all time low, while the hiring of new officers was frozen. Simple math tells us that it was also time for a whole generation of officers to retire. They have yet to be replaced, so mandatory overtime is the norm. During the build-up of the popularity of crack cocaine in the early 80’s, crime rose to an all time high. Incarceration rates shot through the roof at the same time. This, along with tougher sentencing laws, led to a wave of prison building and hiring. By the early 90’s, most departments had outgrown themselves, and were desperately hiring as many people as they could. Those officers are now due to retire. Few states took this into consideration, so as we entered this year under budget cuts, we were expected to do more with less — much less.So was 2010 a loss? Not exactly. Through all of this, the community has learned an important lesson if they choose to look. In almost any other profession, these reductions in pay, along with an increase in danger at the working environment, would have led to catastrophic work stoppages, or large scale protests. But no one walked away from their duties. No one went on strike. And to the best of my knowledge, there were only a few small scale protests by officers. At the end of the day, feeling underappreciated and underpaid, correctional officers punch the clock after protecting society from those they have incarcerated. With many of the resources cut or gone, we went about our business and did our job. Yes, some mistakes were made. Many were due to a lack of resources or just plain tired officers making mistakes. With fewer resources in place, and with less staff, the average officer worked even harder than usual, and did so at a discounted salary.No walk-outs, no â€Å"blue flu,† no rebellion. I would never have expected less from us as a group, but others are starting to take note. People who have never dealt with corrections are starting to understand our predicament. It was not because we sat on the floor and threw a temper tantrum about our working conditions, but it was through our continued dedication to the safety of the public, regardless of what was thrown at us, that people are starting to take note of us. 2010 was the year of the Correctional Professional. I have never been prouder to be part of a group of people than I am today. I realized this about 6 months ago when I overheard several officers talking. The officers were discussing a major union conference that had just taken place. During this conference, the possibility of striking had come up. It was decided at this conference that the membership of this union could vote to strike if they felt it necessary. The officers were discussing the possibility of a strike. By the time the 5 minute conversation was over, all of the officers walked away agreeing that there was no way they would ever strike, even if it was legal to do so. The reasons ranged from not wanting to leave their brothers and sisters behind, to feeling that they were officers first, union members second. Do you think this conversation would have been the same had it been on the floor of a factory?This sentiment quickly spread throughout the state, and it was made clear to this union that striking is not now, and never will be an option; it would be better to resign. This came out of the mouths of officers who, like me, had suffered a 15% pay reduction, an increase in their medical payments, and an increase in retirement contributions. Many officers have lost their homes, or have had members in their family, or themselves, take on another job. Through it all they are still dedicated.This is why this has been the year of the Correctional Officer. Although this has been a tough year, and things are not looking any better for next year, people on the outside are getting to see us for who we really are. How many times have we said: â€Å"If people only knew what we went through.† The people are listening, so speak wisely and keep your head up. Don’t ever forget why you wear that uniform, and continue to be the proud, dedicated officers we know you can be.So I raise my glass as we pass through the last part of this year, to all of those we lost this year. To all of our brothers and sisters who have made the ultimate sacrifice: You are not forgotten. To all of us who continue to protect, I say: Bravo! The people are finally starting to listen. Make sure you are saying the right things.Be safe out there folks, and party sanely.

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Bill of Rights

In the effort to ratify the Constitution from 1787 to 1788, the Federal father pledged to the state, so the Bill of Rights represents the oath of the United States of America. Many countries have created several conditions for ratification; amendment adjuncts compared to the central government can guarantee that citizens are protected like human rights security measures Integration is a way of protecting these countries It is a means of fundamental command of the people, they themselves are shocked by the center The English Bill of Rights was founded in 1689, the American Bill of Rights was founded in 1789. After a long absence, the American Bill of Rights was influenced by Britain. Let's start with the British Rights Banquet, which was created after the glorious revolution that overturned the King of James II and replaced him with his daughter Mary and her husband, William Orange. The English Bill of Rights in the UK was written by the Special Council and stated the mistake of King James 1, including the permission of free elections, the arrest of peaceful protesters, the application of cruel punishment. The bill also limits the official authority including the right to claim the king, the right to carry weapons, the free election of parliamentarians, freedom of speech by parliamentarians, and any ban on the establishment of the Catholic Church. A church The British Parliament enacted the Bill of Rights in 1689. The Bill of Rights in 1689 provides ordinary parliament, free elections, rules of freedom of speech in parliament, and restrictions on the power of the monarch. Unlike most other European countries (like the 1688 glory revolution) it guarantees that the royal absolute doctrine will not beat. 1707: The first British parliament was formed under federal law 1707 after the merger of the Kingdom of England and the Scottish Kingdom. From 1721 to 1842, Robert Walpole was regarded as the first prime minister of the UK, served as the chairman of the Cabinet Gen eral Assembly, appointed all other ministers, and formulated the theory of unification of the cabinet. In 1689 the Bill of Rights was complemented in England by the Settlement Act of 1701, in Scotland, claims were supplemented by Union Act 1707. The Bill of Rights and the Claims Act seriously contribute to the establishment of the UK. The advantage of Congress, and the reduction of the right of monarchy. They solved the political and religious confusion that impacted Scotland, UK, Ireland mainly in the 17th century. Two main reasons for the legislation and claim right to establish British Constitution Bill of rights The government has moral obligations to serve people and protect their rights, freedom and wealth.The Constitution was enacted to establish a more powerful central government to protect people's rights.The author of the Convention Although it aims at securing the safety of citizen's rights, most modifications are applied to daily life but can not be realized.Right and revision IV protect citizens from unfair search and seizure I will. In 1791, the Bill of Rights was added to the Constitution. The Bill of Rights is the first 10 amendments to our Constitution. The Bill of Rights guarantees certain rights of citizens. These rights include freedom of speech and religion, the right to have weapons, the right to put soldiers at home, and the right to search unfairly. The Bill of Rights limits the power of our government. Therefore, these two documents limit what the government can do. What is the similarity between Magna Carta and Bill of rights? Is there another piece of paper considered to be a two-dimensional object or a three-dimensional object? The UK Human Rights Act and the Bill of Rights have similarities and differences. Both documents guarantee citizen's specific freedom. In our Bill of Rights, some of the rights of citizens, such as freedom of speech and religion, the right to possess weapons, the right to arrange soldiers at home, and rights are guaranteed. To avoid unfair search by the government. These are individual rights The UK Bill of Rights is a legislation that protects specific rights of British citizens from the influence of the king. Subsequently, the Bill of Rights was added to Solution in 1701. Both of these bills help to establish Congress 'sovereignty, give absolute sovereignty to Congress' parliament, and become the best right among all other government agencies. The Bill of Rights also reduced many of the powers of kingdom power. Indeed, the US Bill of Rights is based on the British Rights Bibliography. Bill of Rights In 1791, the Bill of Rights including 10 amendments was approved as a constitution. The purpose of this document is to clarify freedom of those who can not infringe by the government. Many think that this will be necessary, and the Bill of Rights is responsible for two different factions, intense debate among federalists and anti-Federalists. Federalists think that a new alliance should be established by a strong central government and individual local governments. Definition of the English Bill of Rights in 1689 The meaning and definition of the English Bill of Rights in Britain: The English Bill of Rights in 1689 was a British law, passed by the British Parliament in 1689 and declared people's rights and freedoms. After James II was defeated in 1688, William and Mary inherited the 1688 glory revolution. Â ¿ Parliamentary elections and free elections frequently held in 1/2 parliament - Freedom of speech should be enjoyed in Congress - We should not propose troops at peace - we can not collect tax without the authority of Congress - More fine, cruel and unusual punishment The British Parliament enacted the Bill of Rights in 1689. The Bill of Rights in 1689 provides ordinary parliament, free elections, rules of freedom of speech in parliament, and restrictions on the power of the monarch. Unlike most other European countries (like the 1688 glory revolution) it guarantees that the royal absolute doctrine will not beat. 1707: The first British parliament was formed under federal law 1707 after the merger of the Kingdom of England and the Scottish Kingdom. From 1721 to 1842, Robert Walpole was regarded as the first prime minister of the UK, served as the chairman of the Cabinet General Assembly, appointed all other ministers, and formulated the theory of unification of the cabinet. Bill of Rights In 1791, the Bill of Rights including 10 amendments was approved as a constitution. The purpose of this document is to clarify freedom of those who can not infringe by the government. Many think that this will be necessary, and the Bill of Rights is responsible for two different factions, intense debate among federalists and anti-Federalists. Federalists think that a new alliance should be established by a strong central government and individual local governments. Definition of the English Bill of Rights in 1689 The meaning and definition of the English Bill of Rights in Britain: The English Bill of Rights in 1689 was a British law, passed by the British Parliament in 1689 and declared people's rights and freedoms. After James II was defeated in 1688, William and Mary inherited the 1688 glory revolution. Â ¿ Parliamentary elections and free elections frequently held in 1/2 parliament - Freedom of speech should be enjoyed in Congress - We should not propose troops at peace - we can not collect tax without the authority of Congress - More fine, cruel and unusual punishment The British Parliament enacted the Bill of Rights in 1689. The Bill of Rights in 1689 provides ordinary parliament, free elections, rules of freedom of speech in parliament, and restrictions on the power of the monarch. Unlike most other European countries (like the 1688 glory revolution) it guarantees that the royal absolute doctrine will not beat. 1707: The first British parliament was formed under federal law 1707 after the merger of the Kingdom of England and the Scottish Kingdom. From 1721 to 1842, Robert Walpole was regarded as the first prime minister of the UK, served as the chairman of the Cabinet General Assembly, appointed all other ministers, and formulated the theory of unification of the cabinet.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Houston, Texas. Three Ethnic Groups and Background Assignment

Houston, Texas. Three Ethnic Groups and Background - Assignment Example Only New York City and Washington, D.C. can claim that level of diversity in terms of different ethnic groups who call the city home. Before talking about how the educational system in the area deals with the multicultural makeup of the student body, it is helpful to first understand the importance of identifying the melting pot that Houston has become. Some estimates have upwards of 90 languages being spoken in the area, which is in itself considerable. More than just ethnic groups, however, the diversity in Houston can be seen in the various lifestyles that the people exhibit. Houston is considered to be one of the more liberal urban areas in Texas, even hosting a sizable gay pride parade. All of these various factors necessitate that educators in the area implement a pan to create a truly multicultural classroom and encourages intercultural communication (Nieto & Bode, 2012). That plan is the basis for this paper. Community Demographics Houston is home to almost every major ethnic group imaginable. From the countries of Asia, to the outer reaches of Africa, and most countries in Latin America, one is likely to encounter an individual from another ethnic group just by going about daily life. All of these various groups, naturally, have children in schools throughout the area. Some areas are more ethnic than others, creating an especially dire need for educators well versed in multicultural education. Houston, for example, has separate and distinct Chinatowns in different parts of the city. One area has such a high population of Vietnamese and Chinese residents that the street sings are dual language in order to provide deeper intercultural communication. Given Houston’s proximity to Mexico and other Southwestern states that have a high population of Latino residents, various areas of the city of heavily minority based. Individuals from Latin American have a distinct culture that contributes to the richness of Houston’s diversity, yet presents th e need for educators and citizens alike to be ready to understand and accept multiple ethnic groups within any one social setting. In any given classroom throughout the city, one is likely to find a mix of students from multiple ethnic and language groups. While it is true that many Latin American students share a common language, the rising percentage of Asian students in the community creates a unique problem of having multiple languages represented under one room. Whereas current ELL programs are historically focused on helping the Spanish speaker, for example, teacher’s are now needed to adding their methodologies to reach all students using the English language as the medium, while developing strategies to assist the multitude of language groups present in the city (Bobadilla, 2013). Three Ethnic Groups and Background Vietnamese Students Consider the many Vietnamese students I know around the Houston area. In order to better understand their particular needs in the class room, it is helpful to first comprehend the reality of their daily life. Vietnam is one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia. In addition, the educational system in the country is considered substandard, when measured up against much of Asia, and indeed the West. So, students from Vietnam are often at a comparative disadvantage to other students on many fronts. First, they are adjusting to a culture that is entirely foreign to them. Whereas Houston has taken on many components of the Latino culture (thereby making Spanish speaking students fell a bit more at home), that luxury does not exist for the Vietnamese in our

Thursday, September 26, 2019

News Analysis Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words - 3

News Analysis - Essay Example A tabloid newspaper will have celebrity gossip on the front or cover page while a quality publication will have political news or news about a scandal on its front page. Different newspaper publications focus on different conventions (Bignall, 2007, p. 19). As a result, it is vital to decipher the signage within a news story across a range of news publications (Culler, 2011, p. 21). The aim of this exercise is to analyze the different codes and their effects on the perceived meaning of a story. This essay will analyze three newspapers: the Daily Mail, Daily Mirror and The Times. The story that will be studied focuses on a meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron at a summit in 2012. National publications carried the story the following day, on February 18. 2012. In the Daily Mail, the story was reported by Daniel Martin under the title, â€Å"Le Snub Forgiven and Forgotten as Cameron cosies up to Sarko and Backs Him for French Election†. Tom McTague of the Daily Mirror reported the story under the title, â€Å"The Reservoir Duds: Cameron, Clegg and Hague Play the Toff Guys at French Summit†. The Times had a heading that read, â€Å"A pat on the back and lots of handshakes as the entente gets embarrassingly cordial†. This story is important because the newspapers covered the story from different perspectives. The three newspapers demonstrate the interpretations of publication news conventions. Two months before the two leaders met, President Sarkozy expressed his reservations towards David Cameron because he vetoed a European Treaty for dealing with the financial crisis. The financial crisis was hurting a number of European economies. The President refused to acknowledge Cameron, and the two leaders could not shake hands (McTague, 2012, p. 1). The second meeting during the Paris summit was a makeup exercise as the two leaders hugged and talked freely. In my opinion, the story would have been front page news had

Microeconomics Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 13

Microeconomics - Essay Example the loss incurred the bank has to pass forward the effect of this incident to its other customers which are charged higher interest rates on their future loans and their current money deposits receive a lower interest rate return. The money supply of the banks is also diminished due to event of a loan investment that is not recovered. Corporations in America follow similar financial decisions to individuals concerning their outstanding debt. Whenever market conditions are favorable corporations look for ways to refinance their debt. The difference between a corporation and individual is that companies utilize different mechanism to achieve refinancing. Corporate debt can be refinanced by utilizing a bond mechanism. A bond is commercial paper sold in denomination of $1000 to individuals or business which allows the corporation to raise money. The bonds have a fixed interest rate called the coupon rate. If market conditions changed corporation can issue a set of bonds at lower interest rate in order to eliminate its outstanding bonds and pay less money in the long run. Downgrading of debt occurs when the chances of recovering the outstanding debt diminishes because the debtor has not been paying their payment or time. If a loan goes beyond 90 days without a payment being received the debt is said to have gone in default. At this time the chances of collecting the money goes does down significantly. From the perspective of an outsider these financial assets of the bank represent a downgraded asset. The $700 billion bailout plan targeted these types of downgraded assets which the government would buy up to create greater liquidity in the banking system. Another way downgrading of debt occurs is when corporate debt such as bonds are downgraded by agencies such as Moody’s. Moody’s has a system which gives a grade to the commercial paper issued by banks and governments. If the organization is having financial problems the grade of their outstanding debt is

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Public Policy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Public Policy - Essay Example It also helps in evaluating financial as well as non-financial data which helps to improve and enhance domestic performance of a country. They help a government to make critical decisions which may include processes efficiency, investing in new administrative functions, improvement of infrastructure etc. It is mostly intended towards public policies and it also utilizes the information which can help governmental organizations in making decisions which help them to achieve their goals and objectives. Only limitations which can be placed when emphasis is placed on public management is diversion from administrative functions. According to Lonsdale (1999), the role of Public management has been highly important in the growth and development of the public sector of the UK since the last few decades. It has helped to develop a very important way of re-arranging and re-organizing public and government sector bodies within the UK for and has integrated various important disciplines such as management, financial reporting, auditing etc. In a broader context, the concept of public managementfocuses on failures and incompetency of public sector management and evaluates the nature and process of public sector activity along with public administration. Several important public sector issues as Utilization of resources, waste management, accountability etc are related with public management. Public management in UK has certainly explored some extremely important and very influential expressions for the economic policies of the country and also the business related as well as public sector reforms of the UK governme nt which has occurred since 1979 (Pollitt, 1993).The impact of the Public management policy in the UK has been highly influential and this has resulted in some very important changes which the many political parties within the UK have left untouched. The government of UK implemented certain very

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The Contributions of Mansa Musa to the Greatness of Mali Empire Essay - 3

The Contributions of Mansa Musa to the Greatness of Mali Empire - Essay Example Mansa Musa engaged in numerous conquest of the neighboring kingdoms after his return from pilgrimage which saw him expand the kingdom from all corners. During his journey, he got involved in lavish spending as well as well distribution of goods to the needy. The people in his entourage also took part in the distribution in the Egyptian city of Cairo leading to the collapse of the city’s financial market which was among the largest in the world. As a result, he gained large following especially from the key Islamic scholars and those who were responsible for the building of the city of Cairo. They followed him back to his empire after which he used them in the building of the major cities in the region. They first built the city of Timbuktu into one of the leading pioneers of Islamic academic and financial centers. As a result, Timbuktu became the leading trading center in Africa that can be compared to the present Wall Street. Trade in the city mainly involved gold, slaves, ko la nuts, cashew nuts among other items. This led into the city is at the same level with other cities in Europe such as Paris, Madrid, and Venice in terms of intellectual capacity, economic growth, population and political stability (Alexander, 201-321). Mansa Musa embarked on major construction initiatives that included the building and establishment of mosques and madrasas. Example include the Sankore Madrasah commonly known as the University of Snake which was built during his reign and have remained up to the present age. Musa brought about the modern educational system in the kingdom by re-staffing the University of Sankore with a team of learned astronomers, scientists, mathematicians and jurists who made a great influence in the University thus making it the center for learning and cultural experience.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Response & Recovery Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Response & Recovery - Essay Example After doing this, the second step I need to do is to perceive imposing hazards that can affect the safety of the people and the environment. This entails securing the area to prevent accidents and further casualties, which might eventually lead to evacuation of people or residents within and around the area of disaster; as well as the potential hazards that rescue personnel and the affected community may face (Emergency Management Institute – FEMA, n.d.). The following step that I need to do after the first two aforementioned steps have been undertaken is to set up initial priorities and urgent supply necessities which take on the need to process requirements in terms of equipment, personnel, facilities and supplies that will support the activities for response and recovery operations. This phase of the operation is quite critical because everybody involved needs to be on an equal footing that puts strict compliance to having personnel who are trained for such situations with knowledge in the use of common terminology pertaining to incident amenities; the position or title of designated supervisors/heads; the role of each present organization within the recovery operations; and the description of resources. ... It is vital to the whole operation that a chain and unity of command is established before the whole operation actually proceeds. This will enable every individual involved to report to a selected supervisor that I will be assigning, thus eliminating the possibility of being given several contradictory orders that can affect the smooth flow of communication and field work. Having a unity of command allows different agencies (local, state or federal) to work as a cohesive unit and effectively mete out the desired services as expected. There is also an essential need for responders to have and know entrance and exit routes, making the staging area an efficient workplace for everybody (Emergency Management Institute – FEMA, n.d.). Parallel to the abovementioned paragraph is the organization of priorities which I will do. The first priority is always the safety of all the personnel involved in the operation since another loss of life or another casualty may undermine the self-conf idence and self-esteem of the staff. Making the place of the incident safe from further damage is the second priority to do away with accidents and further loss of lives. The third priority is the preservation of property, where relief operation personnel implements procedures to safeguard possessions within the vicinity of the disaster (Emergency Management Institute – FEMA, n.d.). Likewise, I need to be very specific about the goals of the operation that must be finished within a specified timeframe or period. The goals must be realistic and feasible; and must be within the authority that was vested on me as Incident Commander (Emergency Management Institute – FEMA, n.d.). Additionally it is

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Skepticism about causal reasoning Essay Example for Free

Skepticism about causal reasoning Essay Arguing as a matter of fact any object presented before an individual and the reason for its existence, and likewise forming a sum of expectations of its effects rely mainly on either the process of experience or intuition. Hume makes a distinction between two kinds of objects for rationalization: 1) those that are concerned with the relation of ideas and 2) those that are born from the mind as a matter of fact (Hume, 2005). The first kind includes suppositions that are â€Å"discoverable by the mere operation of thought without dependence on what is anywhere existent in the universe† (Hume, 2005). The second is the province of human reason where the reality and existence of an object as a matter of fact hinges upon our ability to infer its nature purely on causality. Causality is the relation of cause and effect, where one is distinctly the effect of the other or that one is caused by another we are able to draw a distinct and familiar connection between the two. The inventory of causes and effects accumulated and stored in our memories form an amalgamation of ideas which thereby produces experience (Hume, 2005). Experience allows us to ascertain probabilities of truth and reality of some object as a cause of an event from a distant past or location. Experience, in relation to cause and effect, acquires persuasive weight when a substantial number of instances always produce the same effect and therefore, there is the irrefutable probability that the same effects will accrue from the same cause. It would take a madman to debunk an otherwise harmonically demonstrable reality. However, Hume opines that cause and effect are distinct from the other and that the â€Å"mind can never possibly find the effect in the supposed cause by the most accurate scrutiny and examination†. Why must the mind be forced to rely upon a single preference to a uniform effect of a particular cause from out of the myriad conceivable possibilities that can equally be inferred from the same event? Effect is veritably an event on its own quite removed from an analysis of the cause. There is one long, arbitrary road one must travel between two points. Conclusions that are drawn from various experiences of the operations of cause and effect are not founded on reasoning or of any process of understanding (Hume, 2005). It is human nature to find comfort and security in the authority of experience and the great guide of human life. The question of why there is a strong reliance for one instance is a curious matter. If reasoning favors one conclusion over a thousand instances then it would have hardly be able to conceive of any instance at all in the first place. This is to say that where the instances are equal in weight and to reason â€Å"seem fully as consistent and natural† then the instance so favored is no different from the instances ignored. On this point, Hume argues that the disparate treatment of ideas is not a result of reason but that of custom. Custom is the great guide of human life: â€Å"it is that principle alone which renders our experience [†¦] and makes us expect a similar train of events with those which have appeared in the pass† (Hume, 2005). It is the habitual and mechanical journey undertaken from cause to effect and the propensity to repeat the process not grounded on reasoning or process of understanding (Hume, 2005). The jump from one point to another informed by custom and not reason is perhaps the same underlying principle as in the case of religious belief and our firm, albeit capricious and whimsical, reliance on its traditional tenets. The realm of religious belief viz. custom is infinitive and limitless bounded only by ones imagination and thought. One may believe in most anything, however strange, bizarre and unreasonable, even heretical when weighed in the scales of extant orthodoxy or doctrinal standards. It is brought about by the customary conjunction between certain objects and perpetuated in history and individuals. Upon perusal of history and of ideas, the individual is inescapably led to adopt the same kind of inferential experience privy to the others. The moment that the idea crosses the individual’s mind that there is an existing mythical system to which events perceived through his senses are explained, the same individual begins to accrue other pieces of evidence from the operations of nature to buttress that belief. Any other explanation to a certain event is altogether ignored and totally rebutted. Notwithstanding the concomitant social pressure and other psychological factors by which man is inherently inclined to believe in the irrational, the individual begins to fashion arguments in such a way that nature becomes available to him and that events otherwise complexly intertwined makes sense merely on the belief of the a priori cause—god. Such invention or conception by man, as argued by Hume, is entirely arbitrary.Man sits on the certainty of matters of fact, irrefutable truths and reality not open.

Friday, September 20, 2019

Engaging With Vulnerable People In Mental Health Social Work Essay

Engaging With Vulnerable People In Mental Health Social Work Essay In this essay I am going to write about vulnerable adults, how I could demonstrate professional values and how I could empower vulnerable people demonstrating respect and maintaining dignity. I will demonstrate an understanding of legislation and policy guidance, noting the strengths and weaknesses in accordance to NMC code of conduct. I will also briefly give the history of abuse, bringing in various Department of Health documents as clarification to demonstrate the need for current legislation regarding the protection of vulnerable adults. I will discuss how the ability to support my chosen case study and careers is seen as the key skill of the nurse, which requires a non judgmental approach which is essential to working in an anti oppressive practice. Definitions of vulnerability and anti discrimination will also be included as it is a comparison of NMC code of conduct. Vulnerable people all are very sensitive to the need of their independence and they can be vulnerable very easily for instance if they are in pain. So nurse should always understand how the impact of loos, change or grieving processes can affect the individual. I have chosen adult case study two which is Mamoun. He is vulnerable because, he has had an operation and he is in a lot of pain. Mamoun doesnt talk about the pain or ask for painkiller but if offered, he will take them. VULNERABLITY Vulnerability is people when support is required to enable or promote independent living and safe and active participation in the Community. To a certain extent some people or groups may be vulnerable because they perceive they are vulnerable e.g. if they believe they live in a high crime area when that is only a perception and not a fact. Iliffe.s et al (1998). Social exclusion is a process in which social, economic and cultural factors can combine to exclude individuals, groups and communities from participating in society and gaining access to economic, cultural and social resources. When combined, they create an acute form of exclusion in particular neighbourhoods. Having identified those groups who might be vulnerable the next stage is to decide the best means of helping them. The Evaluation Panel believes the primary aim should be to give vulnerable people as much control over their lives as possible to mitigate the circumstances that make them vulnerable. Parker. J. (2006) A vulnerable adult is any person aged 18 or over who is or may be in need of community care services because of disability, age or illness, and who is or may be unable to take care of themselves, or is unable to protect themselves from significant harm or abuse. Vulnerable adults could include older people, people with a visual or hearing impairment, physical disability, learning disabilities or mental health problem, and people living with illness. Vulnerability can also be described as unprotected, unguarded, open to attack, helpless and weak Oxford. (2002). in another way if anyone walks at night in dangerous area we all tend to be vulnerable or able to be hurt. Mamoun is a sixty two years old Muslim man who is based on in so much pain after his operation and he is vulnerable because he is isolated from his religious or cultural activities. He may have nobody to talk to or no family to visit him as well as language and culture problem. Mamoun may experience from a very limited health care service or he may not happy the way he treated which can make him more vulnerable. So even though he doesnt answer questions politely and never ask for PRN pain relief, it is the responsibility of nurses to give full attention and see his reaction of his pain. When I am on my duty, I must make sure that he is in a good condition by checking him all the time. If he is in pain, it shows when looking at him so it is impossible to wait for him to ask for pain relief. Mamoun may has no idea about medicines and he is unable to talk it may be lack of communication skills or language problem. Having said that I could look in different way for example, get interpret er, being nice, friendly, kind, understand his pain and make sure that he trusts me. According to NMC cod of conduct the following professional values will inform and guide all work with vulnerable adults: Treat people as individual avoid discriminatory in any way against the patients, treat kindly and act as an advocate NMC (2008). Work effectively with a team able to be flexible within teams, respect and support each other. Privacy the right of individuals to be left alone or undisturbed, and free from intrusion or public attention into their affairs. Dignity all people will be treated with respect. Each individuals unique characteristics and intrinsic value will be recognised. Independence the right to act and think without reference to another person. Choice the opportunity to make both small and more significant life choices, with assistance as appropriate to understand context and options; the opportunity to make choices in the individuals own interest, exercising the choice to take risks Laverack.G. (2005). . Rights the maintenance of all entitlements a ssociated with citizenship, including full participation in the life of the community Iliffe.s et al (1998). Abuse against vulnerable adults has been noted since the 1960s, although certain types of abuse would have taken place before then, society has changed and what is acceptable now is certainly different to what was acceptable back then. People became quite vocal in the 60s, more open minded and speech and opinions flowing freely an example of this would be the topic of sex and drugs. Iliffe.s et al (1998). Abuse is a violation of an individuals human and civil rights by another person. It may consist of a single act or repeated acts. It may be planned or unplanned. It may be the result of deliberate intent, negligence or ignorance. It may happen when a vulnerable adult is persuaded to enter into a transaction to which they have not consented or cannot consent. Abuse besed on many forms some of them that more comenly knowen are include: Physical Abuse for example, hitting, pushing, and shaking over medicating or otherwise causing physical harm. Sexual Abuse for example unwanted touching, kissing or sexual activity. Or where the vulnerable adult cannot or does not give their consent it mayt be. Psychological / Emotional Abuse including verbal abuse, humiliation bullying or the use of threats Iliffe.s et al (1998). Financial Abuse the illegal or improper use of a persons money, property, pension book, bank account or other belongings. Neglect the repeated deprivation of help or care that a vulnerable adult needs which, if withdrawn, will cause him or her to suffer. Institutional Abuse abuse, neglect, withdrawal of rights or continually poor care in a care home setting. Discriminatory Abuse Including racist or sexist abuse, and abuse based on a persons disability, and other forms of harassment, slurs or similar treatment. Abuse can take place in their own home, by familly or any other visitor, or in someone elses home, by a relative, friend or neighbou, in a residential or nursing home, by a paid or volunteer carer, in a day centre, adult education centre or other establishment, by an occasional visitor or service provider, in a hospital or GP surgery, mayt happen by a professional worker. ANTI-DISCRIMINATERY Anti-discrimination practice is a positive action to avoid discrimination. It is abut being presenting positive image of people equal opportunities policy in all aspect programs that take place and also challenging any discriminatory or oppressive language and behavior Parker.J. (2006). There are different tyeps of discrimination, such as more commonly known, racism, disablism and ageism. One of the things we do when meeting people is to make assumptions about them which can make them more cnfortable. Discriminatory language often betrays assumptions that have not been based on accurate knowledge or on cultural stereotypes. Often it emphasises the superiority of the speaker or the groups that she/he represents. This need not be conscious for it to be offensive and exasperating. Non-discriminatory language promotes exclusivity by the deliberate attempt to ensure that the language used promotes the equality of all people Parker.J. (2006). The role of training is always to ensure that the maximum number of people possible have access to the information they need.   Particular intention must be given to avoiding the use of technical language and jargon. Workers have an obligation to ensure that everyone who can benefit from their service has an opportunity to access it, and whilst they are using it, to be treated in a way that accords their need for decency and self- respect Laverack.G. (2005). As a trainer to model good practice, I have to be serious about my responsibility to ensure that the patients have an opportunity to participate in the event and achieve their maximum learning potential. I also need to have good practice how to speak in appropriated language and behaviour. It is very important to make an action plan for acceptable language and behaviour as a professional. All trainers must avoid using language or behaviour that is in any way discriminatory.   Mamoun may be increased risk due to the unaware of his rights, socially isolated, not know how to complain and has communication difficulties. He may also has difficulty understanding certain decisions or transactions and may have limited life experience and find it difficult to anticipate. In this case, there are different kinds of things to think about such as development of social networks keeping in contact with family, friends, and neighbours as he is isolated. I will encourage him to access to social groups which may help him to make friends. Access to support groups I will get interpreter for him if he has language problem. Support and advice, I will support him in caring for him and I will advice him to tell as his problem in order to improve and maintain his health. Assessment of needs, as I mention on the above for client who is unable to talk I will assess by psychologically understanding for example, watching the patient if any behaviour or act change think about his foo d and asking of his needs. REFLECTING From this essay, I have learnt a value of social work for instance philosophical and academic thinking in order to assess clients needs and circumstances. I have also learnt the role of NMC code of conduct and I have developed skills and professional knowledge to work effectively with vulnerable people. The NMC code of conduct helped me to understand how the laws and policies were applied to these such good example cases. Adult Case Study 2 was a unique case for me as although the service user did not have any mental health needs he required help with foll servisce. This essay teaches me the aspect of nursing I can reflect on, the use of the word experience in nursing, how self awareness is central to reflection and how the development of other skills will aid reflection. In the future I believe that I will be able to demonstrate and work closely with both service users to support them, by assessing their needs, reviewing risks, policies and procedures that apply to them. This essay will help me make my work clear to service user and also more open to review so I can improve my practice in the future.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Jonathan Swifts Essay, A Modest Proposal -- Jonathan Swift A Modest P

Jonathan Swift's Essay, "A Modest Proposal" Jonathan Swift in his essay, "A Modest Proposal" suggests a unique solution to the problem concerning poor children in Ireland. Swift uses several analytical techniques like statistics, induction, and testimony to persuade his readers. His idea is admirable because he suggests that instead of putting money into the problem, one can make money from the problem. However, his proposal is inhumane. Swift wrote his proposal for those that were tired of looking at poor children of Ireland. He starts out explaining the situation in Ireland regarding single poor mothers that have three to six children and cannot afford to feed or clothe them. The children of the poor are a burden and a disgrace for Ireland. He suggests that a certain number of the kids be set aside for breeding and the rest be auctioned off for consumption when they reach a year old. Swift backs his proposal with six key points. One, there will be a reduction of "papists" in the country. Two, the poor will have some valuable assets to help them with their economic needs. Three, the new goods will burst economy. Four, the parent/s will gain money and will not have to support their children year after year. Five, "would bring great custom to taverns." Six, there would be a greater incentive to marry and better child rearing practices. Swift uses statistical information to back up his proposal. He claims that there are about "200,000 couple whose wives are breeders; ...

Essay --

Throughout the Golden Age of Spain, art and literature were used to express the events of this transitional period in European history. Love is a centralized theme that often conveys subliminal messages about moral, social, and historical issues throughout a plotline. Within pieces of literature such as Fuenteovejuna, the definition of love is questioned in each of their own different contexts. How love is defined as either selfish or selfless in Fuenteovejuna determines what message Lope de Vega is presenting to the audience. Lope de Vega was an incredible and rebellious writer for the Golden Age time period. In this period of peace, prosperity, and overall well-being, many people of Spain found his writing techniques to be revolutionary. Contrary to the typical rules of playwriting, aspects of his plays included numerous plot lines, time gaps, and the use of more than one setting. Fuenteovejuna is a great example of the newly recognized tragicomedy genre during the Golden Age of Spain. Lope de Vega presented current events throughout his works displaying his personal opinions and components of his own life that made him a revolutionary writer. His work inspired other writers to step outside the social norms of writing and produce other revolutionary pieces throughout history. The Golden Age population believed that love was godly and a strong mechanical force driving the universe in a continuous circle. This idea is clearly evident in Lope’s tragicomedy Fuenteovejuna. He uses this and other beliefs to persuade and justify to the reader a sense that love is responsible for the order in the world. Lope de Vega portrays events relating to greed, envy, and ambition. The outcomes of these events bring disharmony, represented as s... ...due to his elite background, but proves that he lacks honor compared to the townspeople due to the way he improperly uses his power. To conclude, Lope de Vega uses specific events to display the cyclic transition from selfish to unselfish love. The havoc from killing the Comendador is resolved from the town’s joint efforts of selfless acts out of love for Fuenteovejuna. In this play Lope de Vega demonstrates how characters handle these two types of love in context in order to reach out to bigger issues. The author’s revolutionary style of writing shows the use of a theme in order to address the larger picture. Fuenteovejuna is a perfect example of multiple events coming together through the connection of love. The writing style of the play expresses Lope de Vega’s feelings of love related to moral, social, and historical issues throughout the Golden Age of Spain.

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Eating Disorders in Online Communities :: Communication Computers Papers

The Internet has an infinite amount of resources to occupy its users, and certainly two of the most frequently used applications are that of the chat room and message boards. Chat rooms perfectly exemplify the concept of an online community, where real-time communication happens between users everywhere in the world. Whereas message boards allow for the posting of journals and stories that can later be responded to by others that connect to that website. These virtual interfaces provide the backdrop for a whole new dimension of social interaction. The people who populate this particular form of online community, of course, deserve extensive examination. Many individuals, for instance, seek to communicate their problems and self-destructive tendencies. Significant niches of these people specifically correspond about eating disorders. The motivations and purposes for which they devote their time and energies certainly provide for an interesting case study. When examining the many dementias of chat rooms and message boards, it becomes imperative to consider the individuals who most frequently take advantage of these platforms to discuss eating disorders. These people, obviously, feel the need to communicate on some level with others. What they wish to communicate about, however, literally covers every dementia of the disorder. The wide and limitless variety of chat rooms and message boards on this subject caters to a vast span of related topics; individuals who have eating disorders, are seeking out information, and wish to help others all have a distinct space for discussion. The eating disorder chat participants come into contact with various worldviews and lifestyles that are typical of a diverse web community. Although I know that a countless number of people take advantage of this communication form everyday, it still remains a question as to why eating disorder victims choose to participate. The eating disorder victims who frequent chat rooms and message boards must do so for a massive span of reasons. Logically, I would assume that these people choose this method of communication because they prefer it instead of other alternatives. Perhaps they dislike talking with people about their problem face-to-face. After all, it cannot be ignored that the nature of chat rooms and message boards eliminates the physical connectedness requirement of communication. It is probable that embarrassment, shame, and countless other emotions play significant roles in the victim's decision.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Corporate Evaluation Analysis – Avon Products

Table of Contents I. Company History†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 3 II. Recent News†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 5 III. Industry Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 8 IV. SWOT Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 15 V. Value Line Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 15 VI. Ratio Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 18 VII. Regression & Descriptive Statistics – Growth Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 20 VIII. Growth Analysis, Estimates for Earnings Employed in DDM, DDM including Discount Rate, and Other Assessments of Risk†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â ‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Pg. 23 IX. Other Valuation Parameters†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 26 X. Rule #1†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Pg. 28 XI. Conclusions/Final Stock Judgment†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 31 XII. References†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢ € ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 33 XIII. Appendix†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 35 I. Company History In general, Avon Products, Inc. is a U. S. cosmetics, perfume, jewelry, skin care, personal care and children’s products seller with markets in over 140 countries across the world and sales of $9. 9 billion worldwide. Avon Founder David H. McConnell offered women a rarity in 19th century America: a chance at financial independence. In 1886, it was practically unheard of for a woman to run her own business. Only about 5 million women in the United States were working outside the home, let alone climbing the ranks of any corporate ladder. That number accounted for just 20% of all women (Avon. com). The man behind the company for women was the son of Irish immigrants and grew up on a farm. Yet, it was this young man from rural New York, a visionary leader decades ahead of his time, who would become a pioneer in empowering women. McConnell, a bookseller-turned-perfume entrepreneur, would offer women the opportunity to create and manage their own businesses through what later became known as direct selling. David H. McConnell sold books door-to-door and gave out perfume to entice women to buy his books. His perfume proved to be much more popular than his books, so he then founded the California Perfume Company (CPC) in New York, New York. Mrs. P. F. E Albee, a 50-year old wife and mother of two, became the California Perfume Company’s first Representative. The legendary Mrs. Albee is still considered a role model for Avon Representatives today and is credited with creating the company’s system for distributing products. The California Perfume Company was incorporated on January 28, 1916 by David H. McConnell and Alexander D. Henderson (businessman) in Suffern, New York. By 1918, five million units were sold in North America, and by 1928, sales reached $2 million. In October 1939, the name was changed to Avon Products, Inc; McConnell had visited Stratford-Upon-Avon (UK) and had liked the town so much, that he renamed his company after it. The company was taken public in 1946 with OTC stock. By 1954, sales reached $55 million, and the â€Å"Avon Calling† advertising campaign was introduced, making it one of the largest and most successful advertising campaigns in history (Avon. com). In the 1960’s and 1970’s, Avon was one of Wall Street’s favorite â€Å"Nifty Fifty† stocks, a group of well-regarded, â€Å"buy and hold† blue chips that also included Xerox, Disney, and McDonald’s. These stocks helped drive the bull market of the early 1970s in the U. S. , with Avon’s stock soaring to $140. The Nifty Fifty bubble later bursts, sending U. S. stocks plunging. Avon was listed on the NYSE as AVP in 1964. By 1979, sales reached $3 billion, with one million direct sales agents. Today sales exceed $10 billion worldwide. In June 1989, Avon became the first major cosmetic company to announce a permanent end to animal testing on all Avon-manufactured products. Avon does not conduct animal testing on any of its products or raw ingredients and does not require that suppliers of raw ingredients and finished products produced for Avon conduct animal testing on our behalf. In addition to its corporate pursuits, the Avon corporation is involved in philanthropic causes. The Avon Foundation for Women, an accredited 501(c)(3) public charity, is the largest corporate-affiliated philanthropy for women in the world. Avon has been committed to helping women achieve their highest potential of economic opportunity and self-fulfillment by empowering them through scholarships and support for other forms of educational and occupational training and advancement. The Avon Foundation is currently focused on two key causes: breast cancer and domestic violence. Through 2009, Avon global philanthropy raised and donated more than $725 million worldwide for causes most important to women. Since 1992 in more than 50 countries around the globe, millions of dedicated Avon Representatives have sold special Avon cause products, raising almost $150 million to end breast cancer and domestic violence and to help in times of global emergencies. In 1999, the first woman CEO was named: Andrea Jung. In 2003, â€Å"mark. â€Å", which is targeted to younger, college-aged women, was created to help the company reach out into markets it had not previously serviced. mark. as proven to be successful in reaching a new generation of recruits, primarily young women ages 18–25, with a monthly â€Å"magalog† featuring its products. In 2008, reality star Lauren Conrad became a spokesmodel for the brand. Conrad also designed clothing and accessories for the brand. In 2010, actress Ashley Greene would replace Conrad as the spokes model for the brand. T hroughout the first decade of the new millennium, Avon began operating in numerous new markets, with heavy expansion in Central and Eastern Europe and the Caribbean Islands. Avon is now in more than 100 markets and is coined to be â€Å"the company for women†. II. Recent News AVP has a market cap of $11. 43B, operating cash flow of $702M, and consistent quarterly dividends around $0. 22 per share, making AVP a leader in personal products globally (Investment Underground). Given AVP’s positioning in the personal products industry, Avon could be a prime takeover candidate for competitors such as The Estee Lauder Company (EL) or French conglomerate L'Oreal SA (LRLCY. PK) looking to expand their reach into the direct sales portion of the personal products market. Because AVP currently has one of the lowest operating margins in the sector (11. 0%), competitors such as EL could view AVP as an attractive investment in hopes of increasing profitability. In turbulent times, people turn inward. The argument for large cap consumer staple companies is that they are familiar names that offer the necessities of daily life. Barron’s Magazine presents a list of ten companies that fit this argument. The underlying thesis is that these ten com panies offer cash flow, dividends and predictable growth. This list includes: Avon Products (AVP), Campbell Soup (CPB), Clorox (CLX), Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), General Mills (GIS), Kellogg (K), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), PepsiCo (PEP), and Proctor & Gamble (PG). Are these companies really good investments for today? |Ticker |Company |Recent |Price Chg. |Dividend |EV/EBITDA |EV/SALES | | | |Price |52W |Yield | | | |AVP |Avon Products, Inc. |26. 59 |-19. 00 |3. 50 |15. 03 |1. 31 | |CPB |Campbell Soup Company |33. 50 |-4. 00 |3. 50 |13. 01 |1. 9 | |CLX |Clorox Company, The |68. 81 |7. 00 |3. 20 |17. 46 |2. 39 | |CCE |Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. |25. 81 |-5. 00 |1. 90 |16. 15 |1. 79 | |CL |Colgate-Palmolive Company |76. 95 |-9. 00 |3. 00 |12. 23 |2. 70 | |GIS |General Mills, Inc. |36. 65 |0. 00 |3. 10 |14. 90 |2. 24 | |K |Kellogg Company |54. 17 |3. 00 |3. 00 |15. 49 |2. 18 | |TAP |Molson Coors Brewing Company |43. 5 |0. 00 |2. 60 |12. 87 |3. 20 | |PEP |PepsiCo, Inc. |63. 24 |-5. 00 |3. 00 |15. 58 |2. 25 | |PG |Procter & Gamble Company, The |60. 60 |-5. 00 |3. 20 |15. 05 |2. 78 | The first item that can be noticed from the above chart is that t hese companies underperformed the S 500 significantly during the past twelve months (Sommer). This lag is not indicative of a turning point. The poor performance reflects high unemployment and consumer uncertainty. The consumer is being more selective in its discretionary spending and seeking alternate, cheaper products. The market seems to reflect this understanding. The high dividend yields provide a measure of support to these stock prices but they also reflect the lack of price appreciation. | Ticker |Company |EPS TTM |2011 EPS |2012 EPS |FCF TTM |Payout Ratio| | | | |(Est. ) |(Est. ) | | | |AVP |Avon Products, Inc. |2. 28 |2. 01 |2. 26 |-0. 03 |38. 0 | |CPB |Campbell Soup Company |2. 36 |2. 43 |2. 53 |1. 15 |47. 50 | |CLX |Clorox Company, The |5. 25 |3. 94 |4. 43 |2. 00 |41. 00 | |CCE |Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. |2. 05 |2. 04 |2. 26 |1. 44 |5. 90 | |CL |Colgate-Palmolive Company |4. 46 |5. 05 |5. 50 |2. 98 |45. 50 | |GIS |General Mills, Inc. |2. 51 |2. 48 |2. 68 |0. 60 |41. 80 | |K |Kellogg Company |5. 6 |3. 47 |3. 78 |-0. 17 |30. 20 | |TAP |Molson Coors Brewing Company |3. 81 |3. 78 |4. 04 |1. 98 |28. 30 | |PEP |PepsiCo, Inc. |3. 97 |4. 48 |4. 90 |3. 21 |47. 60 | |PG |Procter & Gamble Com pany, The |3. 84 |3. 97 |4. 36 |3. 43 |49. 00 | Each of these companies reports solid earnings over that past twelve month period. Consensus analyst estimates for both the current year and next year are less impressive. We believe the estimates reflect expectations for continued weakness from stressed consumers† (Sommers). These companies are all overpriced and have no catalyst for change. The assumption that investors can find safety by identifying sectors or themes is a dangerous one. Avon recorded feeble operating performance in the fourth quarter of 2010. The company's earnings per share plunged 13. 2% to $0. 59 from $0. 68 per share in the year-ago period. The decline was principally due to reduction in operating margin, which resulted from unfavorable product mix, rising commodity cost and a 27% sales decline in Venezuela (Zachs). Moreover, Avon ended fiscal 2010 with a long-term debt of $2,408. 6 million, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 59%, which is substantially higher, and could negatively influence the company's credit worthiness and make it more vulnerable to the macro-economic factors and competitive pressures. Additionally, the North American market continues to remain sluggish with volume falling 14. 0% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Moreover, the company's initiatives to change the product mix and reposition the business in the U. S. arket will require significant expenditure to support increased advertising and promotional activities. This is likely to undermine Avon’s overall operating performance, moving forward. Besides, the company is expecting a mid single-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2011, which can be achieved through strong field programs coupled with an innovative. As well, call it luck; on November 08, 2010, Avon sold out its entire ownership interest (74. 67%) in Avo n Japan to TPG Capital, otherwise the scenario could have been worse for the company due to the recent crisis in Japan product pipeline (Zachs). Pulling out of the Japanese market was part of the company's 2010 decision to redouble its efforts in China. It announced the sale of its 75% stake in Avon Japan to private equity firm TPG for $90 million in late 2010. The move also was part of the beauty-products maker's plan to refocus on direct sales. (The Japanese unit typically generated more than half its revenues through direct mail. ) III. Industry Analysis (Personal Products – Cosmetics & Toiletries) Because of the wide arrange of products Avon offers, it is quite difficult to pin point one single industry. Thus, going by their primary selling products, Avon fits most accurately into the Personal Products and Cosmetics & Toiletries industries. Companies that manufacture and/or market personal care products produce cosmetics, fragrances, and razors. The personal care products industry targets many faces – from chubby newborns to 40-something near-goddesses to those newly retired and dreaming of a beachfront condo. While companies in this sector would like to cater to everyone, the industry has found potential in both the Baby Boomers and their children — the teens and ‘tweens. Called Gen Y, Boomer's teens offer an estimated $9 billion in purchasing power (Hoover’s). Leaving no demographic untouched, personal care products makers also are expanding their target markets across gender lines, marketing everything from cosmetics to hair care to men and teen boys, as well as women. With more US consumers reaching the age of 55 (33% by 2030), the industry has targeted this more-vain-than-not age segment and has logged revenue growth in skin care and hair coloring products throughout the past few years as a result. On the other end of the spectrum, the teen girl population age 12 to 19 grew from 14. 3 million in 1995 to 15. 2 million in the US in 2001 (Hoover’s). Industry beauty companies, such as Avon Products, are targeting this demographic with lifestyle brands the likes of Avon's Mark. While women have historically been a target market — primarily because women are the likely shoppers — the buying power of males is not ignored by the personal care industry. In fact, the group's buying power is eagerly sought after. Industry giants are tapping into the revenue potential of personal care products made specifically for men, illustrated by Procter & Gamble's acquisition of Gillette in October 2005 for some $57 billion (Hoover’s). Gillette represents more than razors. In the eyes of the industry, Gillette is the king of marketing to men. As the top marketer to women, Procter & Gamble has counted on its purchase of Gillette to give it the keys to the castle and enable it to become the voice to men, as well. Men offer revenue potential beyond Gillette's Mach3 and Colgate-Palmolive's Mennen brand. A Newsweek magazine poll conducted in mid-2003 revealed that more than half of men age 35 to 55 are â€Å"somewhat† satisfied with their overall appearance. This percentage reflects an increase for this age segment since Newsweek's last poll in 1996. Companies have begun educating men on the topics of sunscreen, lotions, nail care, hair color, and more. Along the way, the personal care industry has been piquing the interest of the male customer and introducing him to the profitable skin care market, as Estee Lauder has with its Aramis and Clinique brands and Beiersdorf has with its Daily Protective lotion (formerly NIVEA for Men). This trend still extends into 2008. Regardless of gender or age, customers access personal care products through a variety of venues, including grocery stores, drugstores, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, specialty retailers, and online e-tailers. Reports about personal care products sales for grocery stores and drugstores are usually prefaced with the phrase, â€Å"excluding Wal-Mart. † (Fidelity) This is a reminder that Wal-Mart Stores, as well as some warehouse clubs, present something of a wildcard to the industry. Outside the brick and mortar, personal care products makers have a polished business model for using direct-selling methods to reach target markets. Cosmetics companies have gained sales advantages — with little or no overhead — by letting their customers sample products at home parties. Direct sellers, such as Avon Products, Mary Kay, and Amway, have long relied on this concept. UK-based natural personal care retailer The Body Shop has tested the US waters by selling through independent consultants and continues to sell in the US after seeing positive results. No matter where a company in the personal care products industry identifies its untapped growth potential — be it in the teenage girls or mid-life males markets — a few of the same factors apply. Staying competitive means implementing innovation fueled by billions of dollars in R&D and a strategy of quick-to-market products. Reaching far and reaching fast are significant parts of the battle. However, expanding as wide as the tentacles of Wal-Mart and maintaining brand recognition and loyalty in a sea of private labels may prove to be the ultimate challenges. Fidelity) [pic] Competitors: Avon faces competition from a variety of products and product lines both nationally and globally. The beauty and beauty-related products industry is extremely competitive and the number of competitors and degree of competition in this industry varies extensively from country to country. Globally, Avon competes against products sold to consumers by other direct-selling and direct-sales co mpanies and through the Internet and against products sold through the mass market and prestige retail channels. The major competitors of the company are L'Oreal SA (LRLCY. PK) and Revlon Inc. (NYSE: REV). Competition from mass merchandisers and specialty and department stores has spurred Avon to not only spend many millions on R&D but set aside just as much — $100 million — to support the launch of a global ad campaign. Avon anticipates driving additional growth based on fragrances (Today, Tomorrow, Always) and skin care (Anew anti-aging) sales. To that end, it signed on award-winning singer Fergie to develop a signature fragrance, which was unveiled in 2010. Previous partnerships have involved French designer Emanuel Ungaro for two fragrances (U by Ungaro for Her and U by Ungaro for Him) and the New York Yankees' Derek Jeter for â€Å"Driven† men's fragrance and a personal grooming line of products. (Yahoo! Finance) [pic] Revlon (REV) is engaged in the production, marketing and selling of an array of cosmetics, hair color, beauty tools, anti-perspirants/deodorants, fragrances, skincare and other beauty care products. The company primarily operates in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. It is headquartered in New York City, New York and employs 4,800 people. Revlon's global brand name, product quality and marketing experience have enabled it to create one of the strongest consumer brand franchises in the world. Revlon’s brand equity among the consumers enabled the company to garner 12. 7% of the US mass retail color cosmetics market; 9. 7% of the hair color market; 4. 6% of the perspirants/deodorants market; and 21% of the beauty tools market, during 2009 (Revlon). Strong brand image of the company facilitates customer recall and allows Revlon to penetrate new markets as well as consolidate its presence in the existing ones. The company recorded revenues of $1,295. 9 million during the financial year ended December 2009 (FY2009), a decrease of 3. 8% as compared to 2008. The decline in revenues was driven by lower net sales of Revlon and Almay color cosmetics and some of the other beauty care products. The operating profit of the company was $170. 8 million in FY2009, an increase of 10. 2% over 2008. The net profit was $48. 8 million in FY2009, a decrease of 15. 7% as compared to 2008 (Revlon). L'Oreal (LRLCY. PK) is one of the largest cosmetic companies in the world. It produces and markets a range of make-up, perfume, hair and skin care products in over 130 countries. It is headquartered in Clichy, France and employs 64,600 people. Since its inception about 100 years ago, the company has developed a strong brand portfolio of 23 international brands. The company's products are sold under well-known brands such as L'Oreal Paris, Garnier, Maybelline, SoftSheen Carson, CCB Paris, L'Oreal Professional, Kerastase, Redken, Matrix, Mizani, Lancome, Biotherm, Helena Rubinstein, Kiehl's, Shu Uemura,and Giorgio Armani. These brands are available through a range of distribution channels ranging from mass market, to selective distribution including hair salons, pharmacies/drugstores and a network of directly owned stores and franchises. Strong brand portfolio lends better visibility and presence in all distribution channels and enables L’Oreal to reach a large customer base, thereby increasing its market penetration opportunities. L'Oreal operates through three business divisions: cosmetics, the Body Shop, and dermatology. The Body Shop division operates a chain of 2,550 stores in 63 countries worldwide specializing in skin and hair care products made from natural ingredients. The company recorded revenues of E17,472. 6 million ($24,367. 8 million) during the financial year ended December 2009 (FY2009), a decrease of 0. 4% compared with 2008. The operating profit of the company was E2,577. 6 million ($3,594. 8 million) in FY2009, a decrease of 5. 4% compared with 2008. The net profit was E1,792. 2 million ($2,499. 5 million) in FY2009, a decrease of 8% compared with 2008 (L’oreal). (Fidelity) [pic] IV. SWOT Strengths |Weaknesses | | | | |Diverse geographic presence enhances |Chinese operations marred with controversy | |scale of operations and mitigates local market risks |and poor performance | | | | |Low cost business model of direct selling |Lack of clear-focus and strategy for non-beauty products | | | | |Strong brand equity |Declining operating margins | |Opportunities |Threats | | | | |Restructuring initiatives for organizational Competitive environment in the global | |Effectiveness |cosmetics industry | | | | |Re-branding strategy to drive consumer |Company’s revenues tied to the | |Demand |performance of the sales representatives | | | | |Emerging markets enhances the scope of |A diversified global operation exposes Avon to currency fluctuation | |growth for the Avon’s value cosmetic |risks | |products | | V. Value Line Analysis On December 24, 2010, Jerome H. Kaplan, a Value Line analyst, points out that investors are not thrilled about Avon’s mediocre progress. The company’s stock price has declined in the last three months. Avon continues to struggle a bit in the U. S. and Chinese markets as is reflected in September-quarter earnings, as well as deteriorating growth in the vital markets of Brazil and Russia. Kaplan states, â€Å"Long-term emerging market-oriented investors should consider this untimely stock. Avon could be viewed as the equivalent of a diversified portfolio in fast-growing regions, such as Latin America, Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe. (Value Line) Improves margins, profits, and share price will most likely be a result of the growth of these markets by 2013-2015, in addition to savings of over one billion dollars by 2012-2013 from programs reducing Avon’s cost structure. When looking at the Value Line, we notice a Safety rating of 3. A Safet y rating is another way to measure the company’s risk or financial strength. It is measured from 1 to 5, with 1 being the highest and best rating indicating the company has a less likely chance of becoming bankrupt and are less volatile. In Avon’s case, a 3 may be interpreted as being unpredictable. If the score is lowered to a 4 or 5, the greater the short-term price movements the stock may experience. Safety ranks work better than Beta when there is a break in the market (when the market is going down). Arguably the most important investment recommendation found on Value Line is the Timeliness rating. The scale is also from 1 to 5 with again 1 being the most desirable rating which reflects the top 100 stocks within Value Line’s 1,700 stocks. Investors typically are encouraged to buy a portfolio of stocks across six or more industries with a ranking of 1 for Timeliness. After some time, investors are encouraged to keep an eye on this rating and when it falls to a 4 or 5 rating that stock should be sold, as is the case with Avon with a Timeliness rating of 4 (Money-Zine). With a financial strength of a B++, Avon is considered a company that would most likely survive a depression. This means the company has sufficient liquidity to payout their dividends or increase how much they give as dividends. When income is the primary consideration, a strong balance sheet provides greater assurance that a dividend can be maintained (Valueline). Proper financing ensures stockholders that operations can be expanded without having to disperse a portion of the earnings to bank or bondholders. The stock price stability (SPS) is the standard deviation of weekly stock prices over the last five years. It is ranked from 5 to 100 and in increments of 5. A ranking of 100 reflects the lowest standard deviation, which reflects the greatest stability attainable, while 5 indicated the largest standard deviation and the least stability. Price stability along with the company’s financial strength rating determines a stock’s Safety ranking. Avon has a price stability of 75 which puts them not too far from the top and would be considered to be on the lower side of good stability. The price growth persistency (PGP) of a stock is measured in the same format as the stock price stability. A stock that is 100 probably beat the index every year of the last 10 years. Avon’s PGP rating is 45, which is on the low side of average. This measurement rewards this fund for the consistency with which it outperforms the broader universe if equity offerings over an extended period of time. Earnings predictability for Avon is 65. This rating provides a measure of the reliability of an earnings forecast. Ratings with a 100 are noted as the â€Å"best fit† on the regression line, meaning they have a high consistency of earnings. Predictability is based upon the stability of year-to year comparisons, with recent years being weighted more heavily than earlier ones. Reliable forecasts are close to 100 and the least are close to lowest of 5. Being that Avon falls around the middle of these two extremes, it can be said that the company is somewhat reliable and other factors should be considered in conjunction. A stock's beta is a measure of a particular stock's price volatility and risk relative to a broader measure of stock price movements such as a market index (Money-Zine). Many stock beta calculations are performed relative to the S 500; however, the Value Line Beta calculation uses the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. The most important fact to point out is that the beta measures a stock’s movement in price. If a stock has a beta of 1. 0 or above, which is the value of the market beta, it will experience more movement either up or down relative to the index. In comparison, a stock with a beta of less than 1. 0 is considered less risky and stable with smaller price fluctuations. According to Value Line, Avon has a beta of . 5 right under the market beta, which implies that this stock is not risky and will most likely not experience any drastic changes in its price. The Technical ranking of a stock is almost similar to that of its Timeliness ranking except for the fact th at the Technical ranking does not take into consideration earnings per share projections, only the opportunity for a stock’s price appreciation. With a Technical ranking of 2, Avon, according to Value Line, should be purchased since this rating indicates Avon has short-term capital gains, in the three to six month timeframe (Money-Zine). The plowback method is sometimes used to calculate a company’s earnings after dividends have been paid out. A high rate indicates that a company pays less in dividends and thus reinvests more of its earnings into the company. Investors tend to prefer a lower plowback ratio in a slow-growing company and a higher one in a fast-growing company. Whether or not this is desirable depends on the rate of growth. The plowback rate is calculated using the following formula: ROE x (1 – Payout Ratio (Dividends per share/Earnings per share)). Plugging in the Value Line figures for Avon the result is, . 492 x (1 – (. 84/1. 45)) = . 207 = 20. 7%. To calculate Avon’s free cash flow we need the following = per share earnings + cash flow from operations – required dividends – capital spending. Thus, 1. 45 + . 44 – . 84 – . 69 = $0. 36. VI. Ratio Analysis Profitability |12/31/2010 | |12/31/2009 | |12/31/2008 | |12/31/2007 | |Ratios | | | | | | | | |2006 |5. 5 |   |1. 75 |   |6. 26 |   |60. 28 | |2007 |5. 4 | |1. 81 | |7. 23 | |70. 67 | |2008 |8. 3 |   |1. 81 |   |8. 38 |   |125. 92 | |2009 |6. 1 | |1. 61 | |6. 4 | |64. 27 | |2010 |5. 9 |   |1. 48 |   |4. 74 |   |41. 4 | According to this DuPont Analysis for Avon, all three sectors show inconsistencies and overall fluctuations up and down. In 2008, the company is at its highest level but dramatically goes down in all sectors the year following and continues to decline. Overall, efficiency in all sectors are not very stable. The company has had its off and on days throughout the years without any trend or consistency. Avon needs to control their operations and cost efficiency more closely. VII. Regression & Descriptive Statistics – Growth Analysis Using the data figures for Avon provided through Value Line from 2002 to 2009, a descriptive analysis and linear regression were produced for SPS, Shares, EPS, CF, DIV, ROE, PE, BV, FCF, OM, RTC and NPM (Appendix). A more comprehensive analysis was done for EPS, FCF, PE, and ROE. Included in each financial variable analysis is the calculation of normalized data points for the 7th and 8th periods, which are years 2008 and 2009, respectively. Within this additional analysis the Current to Normalized (CNE) was also calculated, and each resulting figure was compared to the normal expected range of . 85 – 1. 15. In the last step of this additional analysis, growth rate and variability figures were also produced. *Please Note: the ROE figures for the years of 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2008 were noted as â€Å"NMF† on Value Line, thus the figures used in the analysis were calculated using the net income after tax from the income statement and the shareholder’s equity from the balance sheet. Looking at the summary of the results for these four financial variables in the chart given below, only the CNE of EPS, which is . 93 falls within the normal range of . 85 – 1. 15, which means that in the remaining three areas of FCF, PE, and ROE, Avon is operating below the expected and acceptable range. These below average results signify that the normalized points produced are not adequate enough to rely on to calculate appropriate growth rates. As can be seen also in the summary, there is a positive growth rate in both EPS and ROE, but negative in both FCF and PE. ROE may be at a significant high growth rate because of the out of norm results that were calculated for the years of 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2008 as mentioned above. In each of these particular years, shareholders equity was low in comparison to net income (negative in 2002) which resulted in abnormal figures Value Line did not wish to indicate. FCF has a negative growth rate since in 2005 it was at an unsustainable figure of 1. 07 and then drastically declined to . 34 the following year and even lower to . 25 in 2007. This drastic change coupled with another fluctuating high and low between 2008 and 2009 are factors for this negative growth rate. In relation, although not as drastic, for PE results more visibly decline in the last two periods of 2008 and 2009. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | |EPS |ROE |FCF |PE | |Normalized 8th Period | |$1. 55 |$156. 38 |$0. 46 |$22. 18 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Normalized 7th Period | |$1. 51 |$121. 35 |$0. 52 |$22. 7 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Current to Normalized | |0. 93 |0. 31 |0. 79 |0. 84 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Growth Rate | |3. 09% |28. 87% |-12. 80% |-0. 88% | Another aspect of the descriptive and regression analysis that is important to point out are the R-squared and skewness. R-squared, also known as the coefficient of variation, is helpful in providing a measure of how well future outcomes are likely to be predicted by the model. The values for R-squared range from 0 to 1: the closer to 1 the results are, the better the â€Å"fit’ of the predicted values and the more realistic or reliable they are. R-squared can also be explained as the strength of the relationship between time and the variable. For all four financial variables, the R-squared figures range from . 01-. 25, which are indicative of weak relationships between time and each of these variables. None of the data points for these variables are strong measures of how well the regression line approximates the real data points. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a real-valued variable (Wikipedia. com). The results are usually either positive or negative, or in some instances undefined. A negative skew in characterized and having the mass distribution concentrated on the right of the figure or in most recent years and has relatively few low values. A positive skew has a mass distribution concentrated on the left o the figure or in earlier years and has relatively few high values. For both EPS and PE, the skewness is positive in contrast to ROE and FCF which are both negative. Growth for EPS and PE both took place in recent years while growth for ROE and FCF took place in earlier years. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | |EPS |ROE |FCF |PE | |R-Squared | |0. 1041 |0. 2092 |0. 2527 |0. 101 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Skewness | |1. 0284 |-2. 5446 |-0. 3754 |0. 8432 | For the remaining financial variables, the same analysis was produced. Interestingly enough, the CNE for these variables fall within the normal expected range of . 85 – 1. 15, except for BV which is slightly over at 1. 18. These figures range from . 91 – 1. 04. The growth rates for DIV, CF, BV and SPS are positive, but are negative for Shares, OM, NPM and RTC. The negative growth rate of Shares means that the company is buying back their stock. For R-squared the only strong relationships between time and that variable were DIV at . 584, Shares at . 8963 and SPS at . 9632. The R-squares for BV and RTC are relatively moderate. Skewness for DIV, BV, OM and NPM are negative with growth occurring in earlier prior years and skewness for CF, Shares, SPS and RTC were positive with growth occurring in the latter years. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 9% | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | |Discount Rate = |7. 10% | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | |1 |2010 |1. 49 |0. 54 |$0. 50 | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 48 | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 47 | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 45 | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 3 | |6 |2015 |1. 74 |0. 63 |$0. 42 | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 40 | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 38 | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 37 | |10 |2019 |1. 97 |0. 71 |$0. 36 | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$4. 26 | Terminal Value The 2019 stock price calculated reflects the value of all future dividends or cash flows in perpetuity. In order to determine the 2019 stock price the following will be needed: Because when using the above process the discount rate is assumed and one of the biggest variables that may fluctuate and thus cause the result to differ, other methods should also be considered when doing a company stock price valuation. One other such popular method is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) The main purpose of this model is to explain the relationship between risk and the expected return that a stock may yield and is used in the pricing of risky securities (Investopedia). The following formula is used in the calculation of CAPM: o CAPM = Rf + (a (Rm – Rf) Rf = Risk-free rate (Treasury bond rate) assumed at 5% o Rm = Expected market return assumed at 12% o (a = Beta of the security; from Avon’s Value Line beta is . 95 Thus, when using this CAPM formula to calculate the discount rate, the following result is returned: CAPM = . 05 + . 95 (. 12 â⠂¬â€œ . 05) = . 1165 = 11. 65% discount rate (Ke). This new discount rate of 11. 65% is now inputted into the dividends projections table done previously. The new table is shown below with a PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years now at a reduced amount of $3. 45. The new terminal value also decreases to $16. 87 as well as the PV of this 2019 stock price to $5. 60. The stock remains overvalued with an intrinsic value of $9. 06 compared to the current price of $29. 22. The price-to-intrinsic is now 3. 23. |Variables used to determine PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 09% | | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | | |Discount Rate = |11. 5% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | | | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 45 | | | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 41 | | | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 38 | | | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 35 | | | |6 |2015 |1. 4 |0. 63 |$0. 32 | | | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 30 | | | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 28 | | | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 25 | | | |10 |2019 |1. 97 |0. 71 |$0. 24 | | | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$3. 45 | | The only way that Avon stock would be considered undervalued would be at a discount rate of about 4. 9% or below as shown in the table below. |Variables used to determine PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 09% | | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | | |Discount Rate = |4. 0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | | | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 50 | | | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 50 | | | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 9 | | | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 48 | | | |6 |2015 |1. 74 |0. 63 |$0. 47 | | | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 46 | | | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 45 | | | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 45 | | | |10 |2019 |1. 7 |0. 71 |$0. 44 | | | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$4. 75 | | X. Rule #1 The Four M’s †¢ Meaning †¢ Moat †¢ Management †¢ Margin of Safety (Sticker Price) Does the business have meaning to you? Since my tender age of 4, I remember going door-to-door with my mother distributing Avon brochures and samples. Not only was she a single mother at the time, but she also went to school and worked another part-time job. My mother eventually left her part-time job and made Avon her full-time career. She now has 25 years of selling Avon and making a living out of it. My step-father also quit his full-time job and dedicated his time to helping my mother out with the business. My whole life I have seen my mother work her hardest to give me anything and everything she could to raise me and get me to where I am now and she could not have accomplished that if it weren’t for her loyal commitment to Avon Products. She built her business from the bottom up just like any other Avon representative. She now works from home and has all her clients come to her. My mother has always told me that she eventually wants to hand over the business to me and I have taken this opportunity in Finance class to learn more in-depth about the company and what it offers not only as a business owner but also as an investor. Ironically enough, just about a month ago my mother showed interest in investing in the company (yes, after 25 years! ) and asked me about whether she should and if so how much she should invest. This evaluation project gave me even more reason to choose Avon Products, Inc as my chosen company of interest. Does the business have a wide Moat? Or in other words, is the company’s future predictable? Avon has been in existence almost 100 years, 95 to be exact. It has had an exciting development from start to present going from being solely in the perfume/cosmetics market to expanding their products to include an array interests from kids toys to men’s sports watches. They have captured a competitive advantage from the beginning starting off as the first to introduce direct selling and now being a well renown beauty global entity; they have indeed establishes a good name for themselves. Avon continues to do extensive research to keep up to par with their different markets and products and continuously strives to improve what they already have and produce new products. Many companies have hence since followed in Avon’s footsteps, realizing the success Avon has had with focusing on interpersonal sales and customer service. Avon has a well-established name and reputation and many customers have been loyal since their early years. The Management Ever since the beginning up until 2001, Avon has had male CEO’s. Some find that a bit peculiar being that Avon prides itself on being â€Å"the Company for Women†. Let’s keep in mind though the history of this company as mentioned in the first part, Avon was created by a man by accident perhaps, but definitely with good intentions. As of 2001, the new CEO, Andrea Jung, has brought new hope and meaning to the company. Since her leadership started the company has revolutionized into a new identity with Representatives truly feeling and living the motto of the company. Both customers and Representatives have more confidence in the company and it has portrayed overall both in the financial and operational functions of the company. Safety of Margin (Sticker Price) On Rule #1’s website www. ruleoneinvestor. com, Phil Town, provides various calculators that aid in the decision to buy or not buy a particular stock by inputting various company figures to produce the company’s true value. Step 1 Data Input: Current EPS: 1. 45 # Years: 10 EPS Growth Rate: 13% Step 1 Result: Future EPS = $4. 92 Step 2 Calculate Future Value Data Input: Future EPS: $4. 92 Future PE: 18 Step 2 Results: Future Value = $88. 56 Step 3 Calculate Sticker Price Data Input: Future Value/Share: $88. 56 Min Acceptable ROI: 15% # Years: 10 Step 3 Results: Sticker Price: $21. 89 Step 4 Calculate Margin of Safety Data Input: Sticker Price: $21. 89 Step 4 Results: Margin of Safety: $10. 95 Overall Results: $21. 89 ; $29. 22 (Current Price) = Stock is Overvalued = Sell/Not Buy XI. Conclusions /Final Stock Judgment Based on all the analysis previously set forth here, the best recommendation for an investor would be not to buy Avon stock or to sell their Avon stock if they currently hold interest in the company. Finding that the intrinsic value of the company using two separate methods (AAA bond rate & CAPM) both return a valuation that Avon’s current stock price is undervalued, would understandably be sufficient to determine that it would not be the best of choices to invest in the company; at least for the current time. The difficulty as well in trying to formulate a regression analysis for ROE also points to the company’s weaknesses since shareholder’s equity has not shown a constant, positive performance and even at times negative. Income generation for stockholders is not quite strong and would require further, long-term watch if an investor has a personal interest in the company to be able to invest at a later time when the value of the current stock is really what it is worth. Furthermore, recent news indicates it is not the greatest time for Avon in terms of earnings as they have spent a great deal on advertising. Getting out of the Japanese market may have been the most perfectly timed move they have made. Although Avon is currently not seen as one of the strongest companies to invest in at the moment, reviews have said not to leave Avon behind for the future. They are slowly regaining momentum and being that their beta of . 95 is still below the market’s beta of 1. 0, it is not one of the riskiest out there. Also, it must be reminded that with a good Technical ranking of 2, Avon has short-term capital gains, in the three to six month timeframe. At a financial strength of a B++, the company is still in good shape and can most likely survive a depression better than other companies. The company has sufficient liquidity to payout their dividends or increase how much they give as dividends. Investors should still proceed with caution if even in the future the company still maintains a Safety rating of 3 and a Timeliness rating of 4 as these ratings do not give the company enough leverage to be deemed financially reliable. In addition, with a Price Growth Predictability (PGP) of 45, Stock Price Stability (SPS) of 75, and an Earnings Predictability of 65, the company does not perform more than average in all of these areas meaning they don’t really beat the index, they are somewhat stable, and they have an average consistency of earnings. Overall, all of the above inconsistencies and especially the overvalue of the current stock price, will not lead to satisfactory returns. Perhaps in the near future the tables will turn as the company does have many opportunities and room for slow growth, but it will require a watchful eye. Avon is a trusted company with a rich history, especially among women, so there is much possibility of vast improvement and capabilities of big interest to investors if the company is more observant with their financial movement and take care of their shareholders. XII. References Avon Products, Inc. Avon. com. 2011. 2 April 2011 Datamonitor. Business Source Premier. 7 June 2010. 3 April 2011 Fidelity. Fidelity. com. 2011. 8 April 2011 Hoover’s Inc. LexisNexis Academic. 8 April 2011. 8 April 2011 Investment Underground. Seeking Alpha. 21 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Investopedia. Investopedia. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Kaplan, Jerome H. Value Line. 2011. 2 April 2011 L’Oreal. Loreal. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Money-Zine. Money-Zine. com. 2011. 4 April 2011 Revlon. Revlon. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Roberts, Andrew. Bloomberg. 17 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Sommer, Ron. Seeking Alpha. 21 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Town, Phil. Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in only 15 Minutes a Week. 2011. 9 April 2011 Wikipedia. Wikipedia. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Zachs. Yahoo! Finance. 16 March 2011. 2 April 2011 XIII. Appendix [pic][pic] [pic] ———————– Corporate Valuation: Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE:AVP) F